Realignment Madness Returns
Conference realignment madness is back—in a big way. On a quiet June afternoon, when most were sleepwalking through the workweek before a big Fourth of July weekend, nuclear-bomb level news (for college sports) dropped. USC and UCLA would be moving to the Big Ten, starting in 2024. Shocking in the moment—but at the same time, not all that surprising. With Oklahoma and Texas destined for the SEC, it would have been more surprising for the Big Ten not to make a move. Grabbing USC, UCLA and the Los Angeles market—which is what the Big Ten was really after—underneath the nose of the short-lived alliance is exactly what was needed to reignite realignment madness.
The move has huge implications, not just for the Big Ten and the SEC, but for college athletics as a whole. What happens to the rest of the Pac-12? Do they add schools or will more leave? What happens to the ACC? What happens to non-revenue sports? So many huge questions and no one with a good answer. Perfect time for someone like me to make wild predictions on the internet.
One thing is certain, the Big Ten’s upcoming TV contract played a major role in this move. With the Los Angeles market now in “Big Ten Country,” the new TV deal will likely eclipse the SEC’s 10-year $3 billion dollar deal with ESPN/ABC. The Big Ten now has the New York market, the Chicago market, LA market, and a smattering of other large TV markets in the Midwest. The upcoming TV deal will be absolutely enormous. Some are prediciting that USC and UCLA will triple their revenue. With the Big Ten’s current contract set to expire in 2023, they will likely announce a new deal sometime in the next 12 months.
But what does this mean for everyone else? First, the dust has nowhere near settled. Many have hinted the Big Ten isn’t done yet, which means more schools may be in negotiations right now. Further, the SEC probably isn’t done. Realistically, both conferences are likely looking to get to 20 (or more) schools. Here’s the current situation:
Both the SEC and the Big Ten are likely looking to poach another four teams to get to 20. Here’s a list of schools that they could possibly be looking at:
As pointed out here, the ACC’s media deal nets schools significantly less money than both the SEC’s and Big Ten’s deals, which would give schools like Clemson, North Carolina and Virginia incentives to leave, despite the ACC’s Grant of Rights agreement lasting until the mid-2030s. Assuming that everything is on the table, this what I think the Power 5 landscape could look by, say, 2025.
Notre Dame has long been a natural fit in the Big Ten (more so than the ACC) and will likely see a need to move all sports to the Big Ten, rather than the destabilized ACC. Clemson, Florida St. and Miami all share the same SEC football 24/7 recruiting mindsets—making them perfect fit for the new southern super league. Further, I would suspect that they are dying to get away from schools like Boston College, Georgia Tech and Syracuse, among the other, less competitive ACC football programs. Louisville is a shaky prediction but the SEC is going to try and get to 20 somehow, and Louisville fits the mold better than some other options. The PAC-12 will attempt to fill out their conference with Mountain West programs but I doubt there will much support from the remaining members. Schools like Cal, Washington St. and Oregon St. are in serious, serious trouble.
When you start thinking about the Big Ten and SEC moving to 24, that’s when things get really interesting. If they move to 24, Kansas will likley find their way to the Big Ten (if they don’t go independent in football before then), as will Virginia. The SEC will surely be looking at the remaining Texas/Oklahoma schools but the big prize will be North Carolina, who could go either way, and is a huge national brand.
The remaining schools in the Big 12/PAC 12, like Colorado, Kansas St., Texas Tech, Arizona, etc. are destined to merge at some point. All have similar challenges and will need the others to survive. A Big 12/PAC 12 merger would also allow Boise St. and BYU to (finally) be in the same conference and the most heated rivalry that no one talks about would live on. Everyone goes home a winner!
