Realignment Madness

Where does NDSU fit in the conversation?

In August, Oklahoma and Texas rocked the college athletic’s landscape when they announced a move to the SEC was imminent. Since then, the dominoes have predictably fell and plenty of other moves have been made. Not since the 2012 realignment chaos have we seen so many rumors floating around, with an endless amount of realignment scenarios. Recently, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and BYU climbed the mountain and got invited to the Big 12 conference, a dream scenario for any “Group of 5” school. The ramifications have been felt in the Dakotas- recently, a prominent college football writer, Chris Vanni of the Athletic, reported that the Mountain West Conference considered NDSU to be an interesting prospect to join the conference. Fueling those rumors recently, has been the possibility that the Mountain West could lose two schools from its conference, Air Force and Colorado St. Despite the rumors, those schools, and the rest of the conference, have stood pat. Since then, the American Athletic Conference has gone out and raided Conference USA of six schools, UAB, UTSA, Charlotte, Rice, FAU, and North Texas. The move, shocking to all, signaled a clear domino effect from the SEC’s theft of the Big 12. Conference USA is now a shell of its former self, left with 8 members, two of whom, Marshall and Southern Miss., are rumored to be Sun Belt targets. As the realignment cards continue to shuffle, Conference USA will be left with little to no option but to add FCS-level schools to the fold.

In Fargo, a few loud supporters have been clamoring for an FBS move for years, since it became clear that Division II success translated well to the FCS level. In that time period, there really hasn’t been a place for NDSU at the FBS level. The Group of 5 conference that spans the western half of the country was not looking to add and schools that were at the FBS level (Idaho and New Mexico St.) were on islands, with Idaho being kicked out of the Sun Belt and being forced back to the FCS level. New Mexico St. is currently an FBS independent (or should I say dependent)  and gets to play host to a few Mountain West schools, UMASS (how exciting!) while traveling to a few SEC (Alabama, Kentucky) schools to get boat-raced.

With the recent changes however, a move to the FBS level looks much more realistic. The move from FCS to FBS, while intimidating to administrators, has been made by a few schools recently, with largely successful results.

In 2018, Liberty University made the transition from FCS to FBS. Liberty was an FCS independent from 1988 to 2001, when they joined the Big South Conference. They won 8 (some co) conference championships during that time period. Liberty never made a run in the FCS playoffs however and despite conference titles, were often not even invited. The Flames were unique to the FCS level, boasting a massive student body and a financially sound budget. The school was the first FCS program to offer full cost of attendance scholarships. The Flames also went ahead and renovated Williams Stadium, moving to 25,000. As a private school, Liberty is not required to disclose its financial situations, however, The Virginian-Pilot reported in June of 2017 that Liberty spent more than $45 million on athletics during the 2015-2016 year, the largest FCS budget in the country, dwarfing many of the low-tier FBS programs. It was also reported that Liberty spent nearly $150 million on athletic facilities since 2016. With an endowment of over $1 billion, Liberty’s financial situation was so unique, it should come of little surprise that despite widespread FCS success, the Flames have quickly shown themselves to be one of the better “Group of 5” (despite being independent) programs in the country. In 2020, Liberty was ranked in the Top 25 and took down Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl.

Before Liberty, Coastal Carolina was the next FCS school to transition to the FBS level. Coastal Carolina was a member of the Big South from 2003 to 2015, in 2016 they were an FCS independent. In 2017, Coastal then joined the Sun Belt Conference. Before making the move, Coastal made a few runs in the playoffs, losing to NDSU in the quarterfinals twice. In anticipation of the move to FBS, and with the NCAA rule stating that all FBS programs must average 15,000 fans over a two -year cycle, Coastal upgraded Brooks Stadium from 15,000 to 21,000. Before the move, Coastal’s budget was $27 million, but in 2019, Coastal’s budget ballooned to nearly $38 million. What’s unique about Coastal’s transition was they actually had football wait an extra year in the FCS ranks while the other sports moved to the Sun Belt. This was primarily due to the stadium upgrades being made, but showed the long term vision that Coastal’s AD had for the program. Now, it’s hard to envision anyone predicting Coastal’s staggering success and becoming an overnight media darling, but the move has likely worked out better than anyone could have predicted.

“The move into FBS, which is the absolute highest level of collegiate competition, will increase the University’s visibility and brand recognition,” said CCU athletic committee chairman Gene Spivey in a 2015 Greenville News story. “It will change how CCU is followed.”

Coastal is currently ranked in the Top 25 for the second straight year and appears to show no signs of slowing down.

Georgia Southern transitioned from the FCS to the FBS level in 2014, joining the Sun Belt Conference. Before that, they were a Southern Conference Member for many years, winning multiple FCS titles and thoroughly dominating the competition in the late 90s, early 2000s. The national championship success slowed, but the Eagles continued to churn out conference titles and double-digit win seasons. Georgia Southern transitioned at the same time as their rival, App. State, however the two schools have had different levels of success since the move. Before transitioning, the Eagles 2012 athletics budget was $11 million. In 2019, the budget had risen to $29.5 million. At the FBS level, the Eagles have had some success, with three bowl games. Currently the Eagles are in peril, firing two coaches in the last 5 years and are 2-5 so far this year.

What does this tell us about NDSU’s possible transition?

It’s no secret that many in Fargo want to see NDSU move up and why shouldn’t they? NDSU has been dominant since moving up to the FCS level, winning the title in ’11,’12,’13,’14,’15,’17,’18, and ’19. Unquestionable dominance. A side-effect of this dominance has been “football fatigue”, which has seen NDSU go from averaging nearly 18,00 fans per game, to 15,000 (approx.) in the first two home games of the fall 2021 season. NDSU also has a strong fan base, who travels well and is in a larger area for the region. Fargo-Moorhead has more than 200,000 people in its rather isolated region and the Bison are the biggest show in town. The support for a move is clearly there.

An October 19th INFORUM (Fargo newspaper) article stated that NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen said that despite the rumors, NDSU had not been called or approached from the Mountain West for an invite.

The Mountain West, without losing any significant members, may feel adding an FCS school like NDSU would be a net negative move. With the recent changes, the Mountain West taking on a school like UTEP, with an upstart football team, or Louisiana Tech, a former WAC foe to many of the Mountain West schools, would be a more likely move.

Conference realignment has proved to be wildly unpredictable, with some moves making little to no sense, however, the recent changes can point to one thing: Football is still king. In light of that, Conference USA will need to add to stay relevant. And if we know football is king and NDSU has dominated the FCS since moving up, they have to be in the conversation for an invite. NDSU, however, is the not primary FCS candidate to move up currently.

Reports have shown that James Madison appears to be a prime candidate to move to the FBS level, with rumors of them landing in the carcass of C-USA or even garnering a precious invite to the now mighty Sun Belt. James Madison is in a different situation than NDSU however. The biggest (and primary) difference is geography. James Madison fits well with either C-USA or the Sun Belt (more so Sun Belt). In recent weeks, it appears as though a James Madison move is imminent. The only question remains is which conference they end up in?

The C-USA raid, shockingly, could ultimately give NDSU their coveted invite to an FBS conference. Hypothetically, if C-USA gets raided further (Marshall and Southern Miss.), and JMU goes to the Sun Belt, C-USA has no choice but to fold or add new members. In that scenario, NDSU could possibly find itself with a C-USA invite. If C-USA were to fold, the MAC may pick up some of the pieces with Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee likely being left out of the Sun Belt additions. The MAC may look to balance the conference geographically, adding a school like NDSU. A more far-fetched scenario, but not out of reach. Think, before this whole mess started, theories about Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC could have landed someone in a psych ward. Now, we’re left with the AAC raiding C-USA and the Sun Belt looking like the most steady Group of 5 conference. Truly bizarro world.

The big question mark that remains now is the feasibility of NDSU moving up to the FBS level. To move up, the school would need to add 22 scholarships for football and subsequently 22 scholarships to the women’s athletic programs (to stay Title IX compliant, which they wouldn’t necessarily need to do immediately, I believe) Tough but do-able. In terms of overall budgets, NDSU is on-par with most of the lower level FBS programs. Second, would the Fargo Dome have to expand? Possibly, but they do hold enough to get above the FBS required 15,000 per game. A FBS move would likely boost attendance, which has struggled so far this year. Third, would an FBS move effect all sports? Would NDSU move all sports to C-USA or the MAC, if they were to be invited? My guess would be no, considering the obscene travel that would be required for say, women’s volleyball or men’s basketball. But a move to the FBS level would make NDSU public enemy number one with the rest of their Summit League conference foes, something that could have a negative effect on the rest of the NDSU athletic programs.

“What about SDSU?”

A lot of people are going to look at the Division II to Division I transition, when NDSU and SDSU went together, and say “Hey, if NDSU is moving up, we should too!” NDSU and SDSU, now, are in far different situations as far as I am concerned. NDSU is in a much bigger metro with a rabid fanbase that travels much better(unfortunately) with an unmatched run of dominance at the FCS level. If SDSU had a few national championships to break up the NDSU run, this is a completely different story. Lets say, and this actually a realistic scenario, C-USA Commissioner Judy MacLeod says “Hey now, we want NDSU in the conference but we want to add someone in the region as well, to make travel a little more realistic, we want SDSU to move up as well.” Completely feasible considering the issues Idaho had in the Sun Belt. Even if SDSU wanted too, I don’t think the path is there right now. The current financial situation is by no means bad, but the difficulty in adding 22 scholarships for both football and some combination of women’s programs would put an enormous strain on the athletic department (without some sort of angel investor) and would (likely) cause a sport to be cut, something that no athletic director wants to do. Besides, whats the urgency for SDSU to move up anyways? We are starting to seeing a dominant football team that will be in the conversation for Frisco every year, lets enjoy this success now. Are we really all dying to see SDSU play UTEP on a Friday night in October? Is getting paid a million or two to get pushed around by an SEC school worth it right now? Do we really want to join a league like C-USA, who is so desperate for members? It really doesn’t feel like that conference will be standing on solid ground for some time and maybe, just maybe, we want no part of it until they are.

In all reality, this is just conversation - I would be shocked if NDSU a) got even another rumored invite to an FBS conference this year at all or b) moved up with an invite to C-USA in the next three years. As for SDSU, let NDSU fans dream about playing Middle Tennessee St. on Tuesday with a trip to the New Orleans Bowl on the line, thats great! Let them dream, I can feel the drama from here! (6-6 never felt so good!) The important stuff is getting out to Dana J. Dykhouse these next couple weeks and willing the Jacks to home field advantage in the playoffs. Let’s not “put the cart before the horse.” Let’s prove ourselves as the best fanbase in the Dakotas. Let’s get a national championship before we even entertain the idea of moving up.